Population projection for Austria and the provinces by country of birth for the years 2016 to 2080 (2100)

Hanika, A.
Informationen der Publikation (z.B. Journal, Seitenzahl, Verlag, etc.)
Statistische Nachrichten 12/2016: S. 901-925

This article presents the most recent population projection for Austria based on 1 January 2016. It describes the assumptions and how the stocks are projected to become demographically diverse over the time until 2080 and 2100 respectively.
The projection is also broken down by country of birth (born in Austria or abroad). The report is primarily based on the
main scenario of the projections. Besides this, nine alternative scenarios were calculated comprising different demographic assumptions with high, medium and low variants. Austria had a population of 8.63 million in 2015, the reference year for the new population projection. According to the assumptions for fertility, mortality and migration, the total population will increase to 9.65 million people (+12 per cent) until 2040 and to 10.01 million (+16 per cent) in 2080.
According to the main scenario, the population development will vary substantially among the nine provinces during the
next decades. Vienna, the capital of Austria (+25 per cent) is expected to have the most marked population growth till
2080, followed by Lower Austria (+23 per cent), Burgenland (+20 per cent), Tyrol (+16 per cent), Upper Austria and
Vorarlberg (each +13 per cent), Salzburg (+10 per cent) and Styria (+8 per cent). Carinthia is the only province with an
expected population loss till 2080 (-3 per cent).
Children and youngsters under 20 years are projected to account for a slightly smaller proportion of the total population,
namely 19 per cent in 2080 as compared to 20 per cent in 2015. The majority of the provinces will follow this trend,
except Vienna, where rising proportions are expected. As the “baby-boom generation” (those born between 1955 and
1970) will reach the retirement age after 2020, the size of the elderly population (ages 65 and over) is projected to increase in all nine provinces. Thus for Austria as a whole, the proportion of the elderly population will grow from 18 per cent in 2015 to 29 per cent by 2080. By then, Carinthia as well as Burgenland (each 34 per cent) are expected to remain the “oldest” regions while the western part of Austria as well as Vienna will still rank as the “youngest” regions. Vienna will
hold a share of 24 per cent elderly people by 2080. The average age of Austria’s population will significantly increase over
the next decades from 42.4 (2015) to 47.3 years (2080).
Due to migration a differentiation by country of birth shows an increase of the foreign born population. In the year 2015
1.54 million people born in a foreign country lived in Austria. This averages 18 per cent of the total population. The
number of this population group will rise until the year 2040 to 2.32 million (+43 per cent), until 2080 to 2.63 million
(+71 per cent). The share of the foreign born population will increase to 24 per cent (2080) and 26 per cent (2080)
Currently Vienna holds a population share of 34 per cent foreign born persons, which will increase to more
than 40 per cent after the year 2030.

For further informations (in German) and database please see: http://www.statistik.at/web_de/statistiken/menschen_und_gesellschaft/bevoelkerung/demographische_prognosen/bevoelkerungsprognosen/index.html